The COVID-19 pandemic worsened poverty risks for many people, including both poor and non-poor households. Understanding the factors influencing poverty dynamics is crucial for targeted responses. This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19-induced poverty among households with children in refugee-hosting districts of Uganda, comparing refugee and host households. It also investigates the role of social assistance in preventing poverty. Various econometric techniques, including multinomial logit models, are employed while addressing attrition bias.
The findings reveal two distinct factors pushing the two groups into poverty: (i) family structure (number of children) for refugees populations; and (ii) occupation type (income from wage labor) for hosts populations. Social transfers were only partially effective in shielding households with children, suggesting insufficient levels of support. It concludes that targeting interventions specifically towards children would have been more effective in reducing poverty rates.
For refugee households with children, relying on income sources beyond transfers proved more successful in preventing poverty, emphasizing the need for interventions promoting refugee labor market participation.
This study contributes to the limited literature on the economic impact of COVID-19 in East Africa, focusing on households with children in a specific humanitarian context where post-COVID-19 data remains scarce
