Despite Kenya's implementation of the Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children program since 2004, orphans and vulnerable children in arid and semi-arid regions continue to face significant livelihood challenges. In Samburu Central Sub-County, only 38% of eligible households receive transfers, and current monthly amounts cover just 44% of basic household needs. There is limited empirical evidence on how specific program features—such as transfer amount, duration, targeting mechanisms, and accessibility—affect household livelihood outcomes in this context.
This study examined the impact of unconditional cash transfers on the livelihoods of orphaned and vulnerable children in Samburu Central Sub-County. It was guided by the Human Capital Theory, Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, and Equity Theory, and used a non-experimental cross-sectional design with secondary data from national survey and administrative sources (2019–2024), covering 2,614 beneficiary households. The outcome measure was a composite Livelihood Index incorporating food security, education, and health.
Analysis using heteroskedasticity-robust regression with clustered standard errors showed that increased transfer amounts and longer program participation were associated with improved livelihood outcomes. Community-based targeting performed better than administrative targeting, while program accessibility had the strongest positive effect, though only 32% of households experienced high accessibility.
The findings indicate that larger transfers, sustained enrolment, improved targeting, and expanded accessibility are key to enhancing livelihoods. The study recommends increasing transfer amounts with regional cost adjustments, promoting long-term participation, prioritizing underserved areas, and strengthening payment infrastructure to reduce access barriers and delays.
